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December 2006
Bay Area office market snapshot: Office
vacancies continue their slow downward
trending, while in most subregions office
rents inch upwards. Office negotiations are
still competitive in nature, and smart
landlords aggressively lease their projects
today versus holding empty space for higher
rents in 2008. In
San Francisco,
more than 1.8 million feet of new office
applications have been filed, with the 2.5
million square foot development cap rapidly
approaching. Tishman Speyer broke ground on
550,000 sf at 555 Mission St., San
Francisco, for late 2008 delivery. Current
San Francisco premium view space is going
for $60/sf per year– it wouldn’t surprise me
if annual premium rents were more than
$70/sf by Fall 2008. In Oakland, Kaiser
Center has up to 2 million sf of additional
office/residential under planning. Bay Area
new office construction, including land,
tenant improvements, site and soft costs,
range from $375 to $600/sf today. Tenant
improvements from a warm shell (HVAC and
restrooms being part of the building finish)
range from $45-$60/sf today. There may be
new office construction along I-680 for
possible 2009 delivery, with estimates of
$50+/sf rents required to make developmental
sense ($4.17/sf per month). Well-located,
brand new Class A office space usually
commands a significant premium over existing
product. New building technology,
$50-$60/sf tenant improvement allowances
included in the base rent, state-of-the-art
energy management systems and being “the new
kid on the block” help create a rent
disparity between new and “experienced”
office product. Landlords with existing
office buildings should not proforma future
rents at new-building levels, but office
tenants in all categories should budget
rental increases commensurate with their
lease expiration exposure. For a quick
one-page vacancy summary for the entire San
Francisco Bay Area
click here.
Thank you to
everyone whom I’ve had the pleasure to work
with as I did receive Commercial Broker of
the Year from the Business Times – a
great honor considering how large a
commercial real estate market we have in
Contra Costa/Alameda/Solano/San Joaquin
Counties, and how many commercial brokers
are in the business. Thank you!
Alternative
workplace update: “Motivated more by a
desire to save money on real estate than to
please finicky employees, companies
including Motorola, Ernest & Young and Cisco
Systems report that they have cut real
estate costs significantly by adopting
“alternative workplace” designs. Cisco, for
example, has seen 37 to 40 percent savings
from its new approach. Capital One
Financial Services Corp has made the concept
a key part of its “Future of Work”
initiative by swapping traditional offices
and cubicles for a mixture of unassigned
desks, sofas and conference spaces. The
company’s cafeteria is designed to
accommodate informal meetings, and there are
scattered café areas that look remarkably
like the local Starbucks. Employees
equipped with wireless laptops, Blackberries
and cell phones, are free to work wherever
they wish. A recent Gallup poll
commissioned by CoreNet Global, a corporate
real estate association, found that 20
percent of large companies expect to have
between 25 and 50 percent of their employees
working in unassigned spaces by 2010, and by
2020 the majority of large companies are
expected to have adopted the practice to
some extent. Alternative workplaces offer
an opportunity for deeper (expense) cuts
because they represent a shift from thinking
about occupancy (how many people a building
can accommodate) to utilization (how many
people actually use a building or office at
any given time). ‘Companies are starting to
realize that instead of being satisfied that
their building is 95 percent occupied they
should instead be worried that it’s only 40
percent utilized because people are often
out of the office,’ says Prentice Knight,
CEO of CoreNet Global.” CFO (October
2006)
“California’s
job market is expected to expand faster than
the rest of the country’s, a new report
says, and analysts believe the East Bay and
the rest of the Bay Area could nestle into
the vangard of that growth. Overall,
California is expected to increase its job
base by 17 percent between now and 2015,
while the nation will expand its job totals
by 13 percent.” Contra Costa Times
(10/17/06) “California will add 3 million
jobs, 5 million residents and 2 million
households by 2015.” San Francisco
Chronicle (11/14/06) “Jobs are being
added in the East Bay at a fast enough pace
that it tops regions either touted as
today’s boomtowns – such as Sacramento
County – or generally viewed as giant
pillars of employment – such as San Diego,
Los Angeles, Orange County, San Francisco
area and Santa Clara County.” Contra
Costa Times (10/16/06)
“Google
recently unveiled plans to build a
solar-powered electricity system at its
headquarters. The rooftop system – capable
of generating 1.6 MW - will rank Google’s
facilities as the largest U.S. solar-powered
corporate office complex. According to the
company, once the system is in place, it
will rely on solar power to supply nearly a
third of the electricity consumed by office
workers at its roughly one-million-square
foot headquarters. Most of the solar panels
will sit on the rooftops of office buildings
in the Googleplex – the nickname for the
site. Others will provide shaded parking as
part of the newly constructed solar-panel
canopies over existing Google car parking
lots.” ElectricalZone (11/1/06)
Deals &
Rumors:
Office leasing activity during the past 60
days in
San Francisco
was overwhelming in comparison to the rest
of the Bay Area… StubHub leased 38,000 sf at
199 Fremont St.; Office General took 14,000
sf at 580 California St.; Fliesler Meyer
signed for 15,000 sf at 650 California St.;
Blue Shield expanded by 30,000 sf at 50
Beale St.; Degenkolb Engineers leased 25,000
sf at 235 Montgomery St.; Ironwood Capital
Management took 16,000 sf at Steuart Tower;
Golden Gate Regional Center leased 33,000 sf
at 875 Stevenson St; Bar Association of San
Francisco signed for 24,000 sf at 301
Battery St.; Levin Simes Kaiser & Gornick
took 16,000 sf at 44 Montgomery St.; Mellon
Financial Corp. may have a LOI for 75,000 sf
at 50 Fremont St.; Advent Softway leased
104,000 sf at 650 Townsend St.; Sirna
Therapeutics expanded by 19,000 sf at 1700
Owens St.; FTI Consulting leased 17,000 sf
at One Front St.; where in the same building
Wells Fargo expanded by 32,000 sf; Offit
Hill Capital Management leased 42,000 sf at
One Maritime Plaza; Ingenio leased 38,000 sf
at 201 Mission St.; Smith Group took 35,000
sf at 301 Battery St.; Learn It signed for
14,000 sf at 22 New Montgomery St.; and Novo
Construction leased 13,000 sf at 608 Folsom
St. Down the Peninsula in
San Mateo,
SalesForce.com leased 114,000 sf at 900
Concar Drive and Wageworks took 40,000 sf
and Epocrates 60,000 sf, both leases at 1100
Park Place. In
Vacaville,
State Compensation Insurance Fund is
planning a 430,000 sf office campus to house
1,200 employees. In Emeryville, I
represented Environ in their expansion to
22,000 sf at 6001 Shellmound Street. In
Walnut
Creek,
I helped TriStar with their 11,393 sf lease
renewal at 470 N. Wiget Lane, and AirTouch
just expanded by 15,000 sf at Walnut Creek
Executive Center. In
Concord,
North American Title is reportedly
relocating to 16,000 sf, T-Mobile is
renewing and expanding to 67,000 sf and BNC
Mortgage signed for 18,000 sf, all three
tenants for Concord Gateway at 1855 Gateway
Blvd. In San Ramon,
California Newspapers leased 35,000 sf at
2527 Camino Ramon, and farther down the I-680, Zantaz signed a 67,000 sf office
lease at 5794 W. Las
Positas Blvd. in Pleasanton.
“Gensler, an
architecture and design firm based in San
Francisco, recently released the results of
a survey on the effects of office design on
employee performance. Office workers
believe they would be 21 percent more
effective if given a better working
environment. Nine out of ten workers
believe that better office design lends to
better overall employee performance and
makes a company more competitive.
Approximately 66 percent of workers believe
they are more efficient when working closely
with coworkers; 30 percent don’t think their
current workspace promotes collaboration.”
Buildings (October 2006) For more on
this, please see our lead story at
www.officetimes.com.
A few highlights from
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2007,
published by Urban Land Institute and Price
Waterhouse Coopers “By any measure, capital
will continue to pour into real estate
markets, but at more restrained volumes in
the wake of lowering return expectations.
As long as stocks and bonds sputter, the
property markets should retain their
comparative allure … Nosebleed pricing
levels continue to favor sellers over buyers, who may
not be able to achieve significant value
gains during holding periods into the next
cycle. Long-term curves seem best
positioned to benefit from improving
property revenues after enjoying fabulous
appreciation returns ... Lenders will
tighten underwriting standards …
Skyrocketing development-related costs
(material, labor, entitlements) temper new
commercial construction, helping keep supply
in check … Office markets should improve -
vacancies will decline further and advance
rents.” For a complete copy of this report
go to
www.officetimes.com
and click on
Emerging Trends 2007.
Cisco Systems
has a high-end video conferencing system
with new technology so lifelike that it
could
replace
corporate travel … Cisco will cut $100
million in expenses by reducing travel 20
percent in the
next 12 months
… the system uses software the company
created and runs on a network powered by the
company’s own routers and switches. The
pictures are displayed on a 60-inch plasma
screen, which is four times better than
standard television … figure on six figures
for the build-out of one room. Tri-Valley
Herald (10/24/06)
People always
want something else, Part 631: For a number
of years, Bay Area business leaders have
bemoaned our high cost of housing as one key
reason it is difficult to attract companies
and employees to relocate to the Bay Area,
and yet when our housing prices begin to
decline, it is headlined as a major economic
disaster …we complain there isn’t enough
housing supply, but no way would any of us
want new development in our communities …
no, we want it built “elsewhere” and then we
complain about the increase in traffic
congestion due to these long-distance
commuters …
Corporate
America and CRM’s (Client Relationship
Managers) … “Client relationship management
- the hottest buzzword in corporate real
estate circles these days - is taking on
heightened importance even as several real
estate functions are being outsourced.
Combining a
corporate background with real estate
expertise, CRMs form a bridge between real
estate and the C-suite to maximize the
overall corporate strategy. The client
relationship managers, who know and
understand the concerns of their business
unit, are able to help the corporate real
estate department present the initiative to
the business units in a way that answered
their concerns and demonstrated the
companywide benefits of the plan.”
National Real Estate Investor (September
2006)
I received my
BS as well as my MBA from UC Berkeley, so it
was great to note: “UC Berkeley’s Haas
School of Business hit No. 5 on the Wall
Street Journal’s ranking of graduate
programs this year, up from No. 7 last year. It beat out
neighboring Stanford University’s business
school which fell from No. 15 to No. 18 this
year” East Bay Business Times
(11/22/06). Now if we could just figure a
way to make the Rose Bowl in 2007. (I played
tenor sax in the Cal Marching Band way back
when …)
“Green”
furniture and “green” buildings … Steelcase
has a lightweight office chair, called the
Think, with 44 percent of the chair coming
from recycled materials. After the chair
has been used for years, most of its 32
pounds are, in turn, recyclable. Herman
Miller sells two “green” chairs, one of
which, the Celle, can be 99 percent
recycled. Knoll has its Life chair, with 70
to 80 percent of its materials recyclable.
New York Times (10/22/06). “Tishman
Speyer is seeking permission to build a
33-story ‘green’ office tower at Second and
Howard Street, a project San
Francisco officials are calling a pioneer in
a new program giving priority to sustainable
developments … The 700,000-square foot
building, which would cost approximately
$350 million ($500/sf) based on a
current construction rates, would be the
first office tower in the city built to
comply with ‘gold’ standards set by
Leadership on Energy and Environmental
Design (LEED) … while green construction
generally costs 2 percent more than
traditional construction, the millions saved
in the expedited permitting process more
than compensates for the cost.”
San Francisco
Business Times
(11/3/06).
“Only five percent of new commercial
buildings built this year are expected to
LEED certified. In a 2005 survey of
construction and real estate industry
executives by Turner Construction Co., 68
percent said they avoided green construction
because of concerns about cost … In June,
during the U.S. Conference of Mayors annual
gathering, the non-profit organization
identified buildings as the largest consumer
of fossil fuel in the nation. According to
the group, whose more than 300 members
represent cities with at least 30,000
residents, between 40 percent and 60 percent
of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. are
created from operating buildings … Experts
point to a recent study by Lawrence Berkeley
National Lab that found the financial
benefits of green design over the life of
the building more than 10 times the
additional cost associated with building
green.” National Real Estate Investor
(November 2006)
I’m not sure which day
is more special for a child, their birthday
or Halloween … our family starts planning
Halloween months in advance, with costumes
readied – then each school has their own
parade, our neighborhood has a
late-afternoon block party, and for the main
event we take turns going out with the kids
or staying home greeting an average of 250
costumed trick-or-treators each Oct 31st.
A very special day, and then mom “buys”
their candy so we don’t send all the
dentists' kids to Ivy League schools … I was
looking in the cupboard this morning at our
“sippy cup” collection (remember those?),
now obsolete as our 4-year old Madison now
has the dexterity not to spill from a
regular cup. Jordan, our 9-year old boy,
has had an amazing soccer season – he is in
a “White Plus” which is not as advanced as
the Traveling Red team, which basically play
year round, but is still advanced with a
number of tournaments added. His league,
Mustang, has more than 5,000 players and 380
coaches. Jordan’s team, Tigers, played a two-weekend tournament and won every game
including a 1 to 1 tie that went into two
overtimes, then shootoffs, and Jordan scored
a goal, the other team missed one and we won
the entire divisional championship … mixed
blessings as those of you who have had
children in sports can appreciate, as now we
were invited to a multi-city tournament
which means more practices, more games and
more scheduling conflicts with baseball
(yes, the clinics are already in full gear),
skiing (resorts are making snow and
beginning to open), clarinet, handchimes,
religious school, Cub Scouts, homework and
free time just to be a kid ... no
complaints, and my wife and I are always
pointing out the sunsets and special daily
moments as we continually stop to “smell the
roses” … Please
click here
to see their latest escapades. Have a great
holiday season! |