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A few weeks
ago I spoke to the Investment Marketing
Forum on the current and future state of the
Bay Area office market. In summary, there
are 72 million square feet of vacant
available office space in the Bay Area, with
38 million feet of this in the Silicon
Valley. Office
rents in a number of the submarkets have
gone up 10 to 20 percent during the past 12
months. To see the statistics go to
www.OfficeTimes.com/imfupdate.htm.
As examples of falling vacancy rates, the
Peninsula is down from 20 percent one year
ago to 14 percent today, and most experts
believe it will get down to 10 percent by
the end of 2007. San Francisco CBD was 20
percent vacant, but now 9 to 12 percent.
The future prognosis is slow, a steady
downward trend in vacancy rates, and slow
continual upward rental increase trend.
Tenant improvements are expensive and will
remain as such so new office construction in
suburban areas need fully serviced office
rents in the $4 to $5/rsf range to justify
the $350 to $500/rsf construction costs.
Therefore it will be a while longer until we
see new development. Thank goodness for
offshoring, because otherwise we’d be
totally out of office space and rents would
be double what they are today. Other
trends: Companies aren’t relocating to
California because our housing is just too
darn costly, but for the most part,
companies aren’t leaving California either.
If they did most of their employees wouldn’t
leave and our unemployment rate is so low,
it is easy to get another job. We have
great weather between 9 to 10 months a year
and some of the most profitable companies in
the world are thriving in spite of our high
costs of living. Another major trend which
you will see more elsewhere on
www.OfficeTimes.com
is the
“Green Revolution,” with corporations
beginning to mandate sustainability in the
construction and operation of office
buildings. A wealth of information about
Leadership in Energy and Environmental
Design (LEED) can be found at
www.usgbc.org.
Money talks … especially in
business. If a new strategy, product, or
technology boosts profitability, companies
not only sit up and take notice; they
embrace it with open arms. “Going green is
no longer
just about protecting the
environment or even providing a healthier
and more productive workplace for
employees,” says Peter J. Miscovich, a
principal within Deloitte Consulting LLP.
“Green is also about improving the bottom
line. Thus, corporations will drive
sustainable practices into the mainstream,
yielding tremendous environmental and social
benefits while generating increased
corporate profits
and shareholder value.”
Toyota Logistics Services’ new 85-acre Port
of Portland vehicle distribution
center in
Portland, Oregon integrated a wide variety
of green design, materials, and technologies
into
every aspect of the buildings and
site. “Wal-Mart, the largest retailer in
the world, is adopting green
practices,
which will have a significant impact
globally. Wal-Mart’s long-term
environmental goals are
to use 100 percent
renewable energy, to create zero waste, and
to sell products that sustain natural
resources and the environment.”
Hemisphere (Dec. 06) To see the
complete article go to
www.hemispheresmagazine.com/dec06/executivesecrets.html.
We have a page of links and resources for
GREEN buildings and BEST Buildings
Environmentally Sustainable Techniques
practices
on
www.OfficeTimes.com/sustainableofficebldg.htm.
Please check this out and if you know of any
additional great links please email them to
kmoe@colliersparrish.com.
The recent Fortune Magazine’s
100 Best Companies to Work For had
California leading the pack, with 13
including the #1 (Google) and #2 (Genentech)
spots, followed by Texas with 11 and New
York with 9. Google’s reputation is “fun
and games,” with perks like free gourmet
food served at 11 cafes, each serving
different kinds of cuisine, snack bars
stocked with an endless supply of candy and
drinks are scattered around, and free access
to on-site doctors, laundry machines and
lots of other benefits …
“How To Make Your Workspace
Work Better” Cisco Systems found that its
cubicles sat vacant 35 percent of the time
and that workers come to the office
primarily for meetings and to socialize.
They tore out the cubicles and converted the
office into a flexible, multifunctional
space where employees can plop down their
laptops to work wherever they want, using
desks, chairs and dividers that roll on
wheels. Google has office pods of four or
five engineers working together, collapsible
conference rooms scattered throughout the
office, and communal areas to encourage
communication and mingling. Business 2.0
(November 2006)
“Trillions of dollars of
commercial property owned by real-estate
investment trusts, corporations and other
investors around the world will soon become
obsolete – and will drop in value. This
looming obsolescence has nothing to do with
the housing bubble. It will affect office
buildings, shopping malls, warehouses and
distribution centers. It threatens
real-estate portfolios from Chicago to
Shanghai, even as it also opens new
profit-making opportunities. What’s going
on? A significant real-estate market shift
is gathering momentum: Green buildings –
which have a less negative impact on the
environment, boast lower energy consumption,
and offer healthier indoor environments than
‘standard’ buildings – are going
mainstream.” Barron’s (12/25/06)
To see the complete article go to
www.OfficeTimes.com/sustainableofficebldg.htm.
According to Business
Facilities (November 2006), “U.S.
universities lead the world when it comes to
biotechnology transfer and
commercialization. U.S. universities hold
eight of the top positions, as measured by
papers and citations. Nine of the top 10
patent holders are U.S. universities. MIT
is first on outcome measures, which include
such factors as licensing income and start
ups. The University of California system
ranks second with Caltech third, Stanford
forth, and University of Florida fifth. The
top 10 U.S. universities account for 11.8
percent of world publications.” With 300
medical products on the market and nearly
400 more in late-stage tests, Northern
California biotechnology companies are on
the cusp of a commercial explosion,
according to a report by the industry group
BayBio. But competition from other states
and countries where it is cheaper to
operate, with fewer governmental
regulations, could woo many local companies
elsewhere, according to several experts
behind the report unveiled earlier this
week. “We are starting to see part of a
brain drain of Bay Area biotechnology talent
heading to Singapore, China, India and other
nations,” warned Daniel Perez, a BayBio
board member. Contra Costa Times
(12/8/06) “The Bay Area life sciences
industry is stronger than ever, adding 6,000
jobs in 2006, according to a new report.
And the growth is expected to continue next
year. Most of the chief executives surveyed
for the report said they expect to increase
their staffs by at least 10 percent in the
next year … Currently, there are 900 life
science companies in the Bay Area with a
total of 90,000 employees and more than 6
billion in payroll. ‘There’s no other place
in the world where you can find that many
employees all within one and a half-hours of
each other’ said Perez. ‘If you want to go
into biotech there’s no better place in the
world than right here.’” Contra Costa
Times (1/6/07)
“Almost three years ago,
Scott Kirwin was Wired’s upset programmer.
Tossed from his job and raging against
globalization, he had launched the
Information Technology Professionals
Association of America to lobby against
offshored work and imported workers. In
June, he shuttered ITPAA. I didn’t view
outsourcing as the big threat it was, he
says. What changed? Well, Kirwin found
better work as an analyst and software
architect. And he noticed that the talents
that make him valuable – open-mindedness, a
willingness to take risks, flashes of
ingenuity – couldn’t be reduced to a spec
sheet and emailed to Hyderabad. Outsourcing
isn’t going away, he says. But in the end,
America may be stronger for it.” Wired
(December 2006)
Deals & Rumors:
Let’s start with Martinez, where I
helped sell a 15,000 sf office building at
2870 Howe Road to the Contra Costa Housing
Authority; in Concord I represented
Entrix in a 22,000 sf office lease at 2300
Clayton and in Walnut Creek,
Securitas will be relocating to 18,000 sf at
401 Lennon Lane; Chapman College leased
18,000 sf at 2950 Buskirk and Chevron may be
subleasing 38,000 sf at 1277 Treat Blvd.
Farther down the I-680, San Ramon was
very active, with Chevron leasing 106,000 sf
at Bishop Ranch’s 6121 Bollinger Canyon
Road; CNP will be moving up from Pleasanton
to 40,000 sf at Bishop Ranch 7; AccountNow
took 25,000 sf at Bishop Ranch 3; Innovative
Claims signed for 12,000 sf at Bishop Ranch
6; Cognos leased 12,000 sf at Bishop Ranch
8; BenefitStreet took 42,000 sf at Bishop
Ranch 15 and CSAA
is rumored to be looking
at 150,000 sf in Bishop Ranch. Over in
Emeryville, Big Fix expanded to 30,000
sf at 1460 64th Street. In
Oakland, Dreyer’s Grand Ice Cream
scooped up 28,000 sf at 1111 Broadway.
In
Fremont, AC Nielsen leased 13,000 sf
at 39141 Civic Center Plaza. Up in
Petaluma, Raydiance took 17,000 sf at
2199 S. McDowell Blvd. In Novato,
BioMarin Pharmaceutical leased 85,000 sf at
300 Bel
Marin Keys Blvd. In San
Francisco, Farallon renewed and expanded
to 63,000 sf and Offit Hall did the same for 42,000 sf, both leases at Civic Maritime
Plaza; Aetna Insurance leased 15,000 sf at
One Front St.; Smith Group took 35,000 sf at
301 Battery St.; Pay By Touch signed a major
93,000 sf lease at 560 Mission St.; Pices,
Inc. took 42,000 sf at One Maritime Plaza;
Regent Business Centers leased 27,000 sf at
315 Montgomery St.; California Pacific
Medical Center expanded by 19,000 sf and Powerset signed for
18,000 sf, both
transactions at 475 Brennan St.; Microsoft
is rumored to be looking at 75,000 sf at
835
Market St.; Dwell Magazine leased 19,000 sf
at 40 Gild Street; Google subleased 210,000
sf at
345 Spear St., and Babcock & Brown is
reportedly out for 150,000 sf. In Daly
City, Genesys expanded
by 140,000 sf at
2001 Junipero Serra Blvd. In Foster
City, Rearden Commerce leased 42,000 sf
at
1051 E. Hillsdale Blvd. and in San
Mateo, Ingram Networks took 26,000 sf at
350 Convention Way.
Eidos Interactive
leased 62,000 sf at 1300 Seaport Blvd., and
Support Soft Inc. took 37,000 sf at
1900
Seaport Blvd., both projects in Redwood
City, and New Bay Media will be taking
18,000 sf at
1111 Bayhill Drive in San
Bruno.
“The East Bay, including the
Tri-Valley area, will see a significant
change in both the age and ethnicity of its
population over the next decade. The
Tri-Valley shows the largest growth in the
county through the next decade, with
Pleasanton, Dublin and Livermore all
expected to see double-digit population
jumps. Dublin is expected to see a 39
percent increase in population by 2016,
Pleasanton a 14 percent increase, and
Livermore’s population is anticipated to
rise 12 percent.” The Tri-Valley Herald
(12/5/06). “The Bay Area’s population
will rise by about 2 million people over the
next 30 years, with the latest increases in
San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland …
Regional planners who wrote the report
predicted 1.5 million new jobs will be
created in the Bay Area between 2000 and
2035.” San Francisco Chronicle
(12/15/06)
“‘The Bay Area is benefiting
from a resurgence in Silicon Valley, which
has improved the office market there and
also had a spillover affect in San
Francisco, where accountants, lawyers and
other professionals are taking more space
because of demand from clients in the South
Bay,’ Kate Emerson, vice president at
JPMorgan Chase & Co. said.” San
Francisco Chronicle (1/16/07), which
also reported, “Flocks of MBA students from
East Coast Schools headed west this month,
hoping to land jobs in the beating heart of
the tech world. This year, many said, the uptick in the economy has given them new
confidence that their trek will result in
multiple offers as companies vie for good
candidates. It’s quite a turnaround from
just a few years ago, after the dot-com
bust” … and this time our companies are
actually making big cash profits, not just dot-com “market share.”
“For the second consecutive
year, the Saint Index, a survey commissioned
by the Saint Consulting Group, found that
Americans strongly oppose real estate
development projects. In fact, twice as
many continue to oppose development as
support it. According to Saint Consulting,
73 percent of Americans oppose new
development in their communities and 70
percent of Americans would use tax dollars
to keep land undeveloped.” California
Real Estate Journal (12/15/06) Great,
pull up the drawbridge, we’ve got ours, now
everyone else please go away …
I was reflecting back on all
the different crises our office and
commercial buildings have faced during the
past 30 years. Remember the asbestos era,
when billions of dollars were spent to
remove office asbestos even though there
were no documented cases of an office worker
getting asbestosis? We had the Unreinforced
Masonry and seismic upgrade era, affecting
mostly older properties in the West Coast.
The underground tank syndrome caused
thousands of property owners major headaches
in having to research, excavate (sometimes
right through building cement floors) and
remove old underground gas tanks,
particularly if the building sat on a former
gas station site. We had rolling blackouts,
thanks in part to Enron, and power-grid
supply manipulation which caused offices and
factories to sometimes shut down and send
their workers home for lack of power. We
had (and still have) ADA, a well-intentioned
requirement to make buildings and facilities
accessible to all, but then it seemed every
five years the codes changed and what could
accommodate wheelchair access had to be
totally redone, sometimes at substantial
landlord expense. We had a property
insurance crisis, where it was at times
almost impossible to secure commercial
insurance, and then with 9/11 we had
terrorist insurance issues, affecting
properties within blocks of “signature” high-rises; potential terrorist targets. We
had the “freon” era which made almost all
existing HVAC systems obsolete until
replacement, environmentally safer fluids
could be used. After 9/11 we also had the
whole security and safety issues. Do
building coolers have to be secured so
terrorists can’t access the ventilation
systems with dangerous chemicals? Were we
going to install retina-scan and x-ray
machines in each lobby? How do we put huge
concrete barriers around the building
exterior to prevent bomb trucks yet still
retain an aesthetic appearance? Now we have
the “Green Revolution,” or BEST (Buildings
Environmentally Sustainable Techniques).
Recyclable materials, lower operating costs,
less wear and tear on Mother Earth, and what
will this do to everything not BEST?
HP has a new cooling
technology that it says can slash a data
center business customer’s energy costs by up to 45 percent. The system uses sensors
and a software program to control the
temperatures in specific areas of a data
center. Instead of blasting cool air all
over the place based on a pre-set
temperature, the HP system allows air
conditioners to regulate the cold air it
pumps into a room depending on the needs of
individual computers. San Francisco
Chronicle (12/29/06)
The current buzzword for the
office industry is “Green” – just recently I
have seen a barrage of editorials, articles,
and new green construction announcements.
Buildings (November 2006), “The Green
(R)evolution?” One of the featured articles
on Best Practices in Sustainability … “Along
with the proliferation of green buildings
comes the question: ‘How do building
professionals measure the success of a green
building?’ Of course, rating systems (such
as LEED) measure how green the building is,
but Platinum, Gold and Silver don’t reveal
how the building performs on a daily basis.
Andrew Shapiro, Founder and CEO at New York
City-based GreenOrder, a business strategy
and marketing firm that helps companies
align environmental and energy leadership
with business objectives, points to
quantitative research that shows greater
worker productivity, less absenteeism,
higher job satisfaction and even higher
sales in retail locations as benefits to
occupants of green buildings. But, what do
the occupants – these who work in the
building – have to say about daylighting,
thermal comfort, and energy efficiency? Do
they see the results of working in a green
building? The Center for the Built
Environment (CBE) at the University of
California, Berkeley has created a survey
that measures occupant perception of indoor
environmental quality, gauging satisfaction
levels and self-reported productivity.”
Buildings (November 2006) “Paul
Twardowski, Hines’ Vice President in San
Diego, said the private investment,
development and management firm has made
LEED certification a priority for its new
construction going forward. ‘This is a
direction we feel office development in
general is going. In a few years, it will
be a disadvantage not to have LEED
certification.’ Twardowski said.”
California Real Estate Journal
(11/13/06). And in the December 2006
Real Estate Forum editorial by Publisher
Michael Desiato, titled, “Green Is Good,”
“An ever-increasing number of commercial
real estate owners and developers are
recognizing that sustainable projects are
both smart business and environmentally
responsible. In fact, industry estimates
put the near-term growth rate for green
development at more than 50 percent.
Companies such as Bank of America, Genzyme,
IBM and Toyota in addition to an expanding
number of home buildings, retailers and
healthcare institutions are expected to
bring green buildings into the mainstream
over the next five to ten years.” And
according to The San Francisco Chronicle
(1/6/07), “Google intends to go green at
its planned offices at NASA Ames Research
Center, an ambitious complex that could
encompass up to 1 million square feet of
office space.”
“Flexible workspaces are an
outgrowth of the technological age. Video
conferencing, web meetings, laptops and
hand-held wireless devices have enabled
employees to work remotely. Richard Kadzis, director of special projects for CoreNet
Global, notes that a Gallup Survey
commissioned by the organization as part of
its Corporate Real Estate 2010 initiative
found that over the next five years, there
will be at least a 20 percent increase in
mobility and working remotely. Kadzis
expects that the decline in (office) demand
may reach as high as 20 percent over the
next five to seven years … Take
Hewlett-Packard, for instance. Through a
series of utilization studies, HP found that
only about 35 percent of its employees are
actually at their desks. The company
concluded that its 65 million sf of office
space around the world was being
significantly underutilized. Armed with the
results of the survey, the company put forth
its HP workplace plan to reduce occupancy
costs by $200 million by fiscal year 2010
through such measures as consolidating into
fewer sites; pushing space efficiencies
through greater mobility; and optimizing
costs by driving down lease rates and
outsourced service contracts.” Real
Estate Forum (December 2006)
Outsourcing 2007: “The basic
concept of outsourcing is that companies
want to specialize in what they do best, and
find another source for all the other
stuff. For example, Bay Area companies like
Cisco and HP specialize in designing next
generation technology and are perfectly
willing to have someone else assemble the
final product somewhere else. The economics
of outsourcing is simple. If you don’t find
a place to make your products cheaply
someone else will and they’ll put you out of
business. U.S. technology firms that
succeed are those that can balance
outsourced manufacturing with in-house
product development and product knowledge.”
San Francisco Chronicle (1/14/07).
“Network equipment maker Cisco Systems will set up a center in India to support all
aspects of its worldwide operations, the
company’s chief executive said Wednesday.
The latest moves, including a plan to triple
its workforce in India to 6,000 employees in
the next three to five years, will help
Cisco sustain the momentum of its business
not just in India but in markets
worldwide.” Contra Costa Times
(12/7/06) “Infosys is the India success
story in microcosm … it is more than a
software and services outsourcing company.
It planned to hire 25,000 employees this
year. If you have downloaded music from the
internet chances are you used software
written by Infosys engineers. The company
has designed part of the wing of the huge
Airbus A380 and is helping to create the
entertainment system for Boeing’s new 787
Dreamliner. It produces code for the
world’s elite companies, from Goldman Sachs
to Apple Computer and Cisco Systems. At the
company’s 80-acre Bangalore headquarters,
teams of thousands of employees work in 47
steel-and-glass offices – a corporate oasis
a world away from the traffic-clogged
streets and pockets of poverty just outside
the company’s gates. The workers ride
bicycles along pristine paths. They meander
past the new gyms, the putting green and the
paddleboat pond.” Contra Costa Times
(12/5/06)
Office building security
update: Electronic ID cards, surveillance
cameras and metal detectors are fixtures in
high-rise office buildings, but experts say
with thousands whizzing through the
revolving doors each day, it’s impossible to
guarantee workers’ safety … security for
high-rises is still a tricky balance of
protecting workers and doing it without
choking off commerce … Two of the biggest
security improvements since Sept. 11 – an
increased partnership between private
security and local law enforcement and
well-researched evacuation plans – don’t
have anything to do with technology, said
Ron Vukas, executive vice president of the
Building Owners and Management Association
Chicago, which represents more than 90
percent of commercial properties in the
city. The cost of protecting high-rises
varies by property, depending on tenants,
whether security is contracted out where the
building is located and other factors.
Still it’s impossible to prepare for every
scenario. “Since 9/11 all buildings have
increased security.” Vukas said. “But …
when someone is willing to give up their own
life to get at someone else, I don’t know
how you stop that.” San Francisco
Chronicle (12/17/06)
Jordan, our 9-year old son,
and Madison, our 4-year old daughter, had a
terrific past few months. I took the kids
up to Lake Tahoe during the holidays and we
were fortunate to ski in the two feet of
fresh powder before the “big melt” of
January. Then the first week of January we
went to Cancun, with so many amazing
adventures like Tulom, jumping off a cliff
20 feet into a deep swimming hole, and
driving a small speedboat through a jungle
waterway. By the time you read this the
kids will be skiing at Taos, New Mexico,
hopefully with a decent snow level at the
9,500 foot base and 12,000 foot top of the
chair lift. Jordan had little league
tryouts a few weeks ago so spring must be
just around the corner! To see their
adventures
click here.
Stay warm,
think green, and call me if I can be of
assistance in any way.
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