For office building
landlords, good news left and right (but for
office tenants news that may be economically
painful in the future) ... Recent headlines:
"Revival In Office Rentals," SF Chronicle
(4/9/05); "Finally, An Uptick in Office
Rents," National Real Estate Investor
(May 2005); "Large Blocks of Office Space
Are Becoming Scarce," City Feet
(4/3/05); "East Bay's Office Vacancy Rate
Dropping," Tri Valley Herald(4/19/05).
California is still the #1 biotech
capital of the world. The SF Chronicle
(4/27/05), "California hasn't lost its edge
in biotech despite raids by other states
eager to lure away its high-paying jobs, a
report on the state's biotech industry
concluded. Although more firms left
California than moved in, a report from the
Public Policy Institute of California found
that the 52 departures cost California only
815 jobs, while the 45 arriving firms
brought in 1,739 positions." The
Tri-Valley Herald (4/28/05), "California
continues to attract high-paying biotech
jobs and is home to one-quarter of the
nation's biotech positions ... The state's
biotech companies generated $13 billion, or
53 percent of the industry's U.S. revenue in
2002." California Real Estate Journal
(4/11/05), "California already has more
biomedical companies than any other state,
counting 2,600 firms, and has been the
birthplace of one-third of all U.S.
biomedical companies."
An interesting article on the human
impact of facility change, Today's
Facility Manager (April, 2005), "As a
building is renovated or built from scratch,
the facility manager very seldom calculates
the financial gain or loss from that
transaction. As a result, the financial
pressure is to work at reducing budgets and
operating costs and make decisions that may
adversely affect the occupant population.
And yet, the most expensive part of a
project of this kind is its impact on
occupants. It is broadly accepted that
people account for at least 90 to 95 percent
of the total costs incurred by a company at
a given site. If occupants react negatively
to the facility, they may re-evaluate the
quality of the organization and other
aspects of their jobs ... Studies have
demonstrated that when the new or renovated
facility is opened, when occupancy quality
performance standards have been met,
organization, work task, and compensation
quality rankings improve even if they were
good before. In areas of the new facility
that do not meet occupancy quality
standards, the rankings of environmental and
work station quality are often lower
compared to the old facility. Rankings of
organization, work task, and compensation
quality are also ranked lower than in the
old facility."
According to the SF Chronicle
(5/4/05), "U.S. companies that transplanted
some operations overseas to reduce costs
have since cut outsourcing by a quarter
because it didn't save them enough, a new
study shows. Some 25 companies, with average
revenue of $50 billion, shifted course
because of hidden costs, according to a
report released Tuesday (5/3/05) by the
consulting unit of Deloitte & Touche LLP.
The study found that 70 percent of the
companies had a negative experience with
outsourcing projects and that 44 percent
didn't cut costs." Interesting ... the
article directly below in this same
newspaper, "VeriSign Inc., the Mountain View
company that runs the Internet's key address
books, opened a research and development
center in India on Tuesday and plans to make
it the company's largest abroad. VeriSign is
hiring programmers in Bangalore to develop
software to manage wired and wireless
networks and to keep Internet transactions
secure" ... "The company hopes to hire 500
employees in India within five years. We
will ramp up in the U.S. also, but the
ramping up here will be faster," said Senior
Vice-President Aristotle Balogh. And in the
Tri-Valley Herald (5/4/05), "Oracle
Corp., which purchased PeopleSoft this year,
said it exercised an option to buy two
PeopleSoft software development centers in
Bangalore, India and absorb the workers in
the two units. Oracle's India unit has more
than doubled the number of workers to 6,900
from 3,200 in July 2003." Didn't anyone tell
Oracle and VeriSign that outsourcing doesn't
work?
Overall, it appears the Bay Area office
market bottomed-out sometime in 2004, with
most submarkets reporting an incremental
firming-up of rental rates and in a few
cases even rate increases for smaller, prime
Class A view spaces. However, there is still
a lot of vacant Bay Area office space, and
several submarkets are still experiencing
20+ percent vacancy factors. Also, due to
recent major mergers and continued
offshoring, in the East Bay alone almost
600,000 sf of Class A vacant office space
will reenter the marketplace during 2005.
Office buildings are selling briskly at
record prices, but it will be several years
before rental rates catch up. Until then, in
most markets and in most size and location
categories, tenants still have a number of
alternatives with the motivated, aggressive
and perceptive landlord winning the
competition for tenancy.
Deals and Rumors: Over on the
quiet Island of Alameda, Marina
Village has been busy leasing office space
including Berkeley Heartlab for 12,000 sf;
Keen Footwear for 12,000 sf, and Weinberg
Roger and Rosenfeld which leased 20,000 sf.
Across the hills in Pleasanton,
Wholesale America Mortgage took 23,000 sf at
6200 Stoneridge Mall and in Dublin
Front Range Solutions sublet 30,000 sf at
2140 Dublin Blvd. Up the I-680 corridor in
Walnut Creek, IndyMac Bank might be
looking for 25,000 sf in Downtown Walnut
Creek; North Tahoe Power Tools leased 20,000
sf at 2033 N. Main St. and Sysmaster is
rumored to be leasing 18,000 sf at 350 N.
Wiget Lane. In Concord, BioCave took
17,000 sf at 40 Pike Lane. A few major deals
signed in Emeryville that will be
reported in the next issue. In San Carlos,
Nuvelo Inc. inked 55,000 sf. In San
Francisco, Six Apart took 14,000 sf at
548 Fourth St.; Intrax Cultural Exchange
leased 30,000 sf at 600 California St.;
Adteractive may have taken 36,000 sf at 303
Second St.; Hanson Bridgett Marcuss Vlahos
Rudy signed for 79,000 sf at 425 Market St.;
Blue Shield is rumored to have an LOI out on
260,000 sf at One Front St.; McKenna Long
and Aldridge leased 26,000 sf at 101
California St.; Interpublic Group of
Companies took 53,000 sf at 1160 Battery
St.; The Institute for OneWorld Health
sublet 19,000 sf at 50 California St.; UCSF
is rumored to be taking 75,000 sf at 50
Beale St; at 274 Brannan St., Accelerated
Funding leased 4,308 sf and First Albany
Companies leased 20,000 sf at One Montgomery
St. In South San Francisco, Rinat
leased 106,000 sf at 230 East Grand Ave.
According to a Bureau of Labor Statistics
report earlier this year, "More than 80
percent of the world's top 2,000
corporations will have established
significant outsourcing operations overseas
by the end of 2005, as political opposition
to the trend diminishes and the pressure to
cut costs grows, according to a study
conducted by NeoIT, a Silicon Valley and
Bangalore, India consulting group. It also
says small and mid-sized businesses are
increasing looking to outsource services to
India and other developing countries and
that Japanese and European companies also
are investing heavily in the offshore model.
NeoIT expects manufacturing, health care and
retail to be the sectors that particularly
will embrace outsourcing next year."
Expansion Management (December
2004) headlined, "China, India Surpass U.S.
As Leading Investment Destination" ... "In
the past year, the United States was
overtaken by China and India as the leading
investment destination, both in the number
of projects and in the number of jobs
involved in these projects, said Roel Spee,
associate partner for IBM-PLJ. Reasons for
this recent trend are the cost
attractiveness of India and China, combined
with the presence of a strong skill base."
PikeNet (4/11/05), recently
reported on Cisco's innovative office
environment - wireless phones, tables on
wheels, desks with hydraulic height
adjustments, moveable partitions, conference
rooms with interactive whiteboards and video
conferencing, paper mail is scanned and
delivered by email ... "Normally Cisco would
fit 68 people into 10,000 sf, (Bldg 14).
Currently there are 120 people assigned to
Building 14, and that's headed to 200
people, (50 sf per person). But according to
Cisco's Barbara Sullivan, you'll never win
the debate focused on costs. You need to
show Cisco's business units that this kind
of flexible officing promotes collaboration
and effectiveness. Now imagine if just 10
percent of the U.S. workforce could organize
itself in a similar mode. How would the
market adjust to this reduced demand for
office space?" Not that Cisco doesn't have a
huge vested interest in turning the entire
office environment wireless ...
The next round of new office
construction, whenever it comes, may be
quite a bit more costly. The California
Real Estate Journal (4/11/05), reported
that during the past year, steel prices
increased almost 47 percent, lumber 25
percent, rebar 45 percent and gypsum
wallboard 21 percent. Former office sites
are being sold left and right for
residential development, sometimes at
several times what they would have sold as
office land. Also, the operating expense
component is at an all-time high and this
trend is not expected to reverse in future
years.
Are local governments lucky or what? The
huge spike in both residential and
commercial real estate has brought windfall
revenues to local governments everywhere.
SF Chronicle (5/2/05), "The so-called
real estate transfer tax revenue to the city
for the fiscal year ending June 30 is now
expected to reach $106.5 million, which
would be $10 million higher than originally
projected ... The extra money will be used
to help close a projected $102 million
shortfall for the upcoming fiscal year."
Another similar article in the SF
Business Times (5/6/05), "This year is
tracking to beat expectations by more than
$40 million" ... Todd Rydstron, director of
San Francisco budget and analysis, warned
against counting on the transfer tax as a
stable revenue stream. "We know it's
unprecedented and unsustainable." What this
may have done is delay millions of square
feet of government-leased office space
throughout California from coming back on
the market.
It is sometimes hard to believe the San
Francisco Bay Area survived the closure of
so many military bases between 1994 and
1999. Just counting the six largest bases
which totaled 38,194 acres, we lost 49,489
jobs, and have since regained 8,337 jobs and
opened up some of the most spectacular
scenery in the world to the public.
"Microsoft has outsourced part of its
web-based technical support to Wicresoft, a
400-employee joint venture between Microsoft
and Shanghai Municipal Government" ...
"Forget about cheap labor and factories
churning out shoes and toys, some Chinese
companies now want to become known for
developing software programs and providing
back-office services for U.S. companies -
just like their counterparts in Bangalore,
India ... Wicresoft's English-speaking
employees teach Chinese co-workers about
American e-mail protocol and help polish the
wording to sound more colloquial. Their
mission: to make sure Microsoft customers
won't realize they are exchanging e-mail
with someone abroad."
As reported in the SF Business Times
(5/6/05), "Shenzhen is the new hot spot for
in-the-know IT outsourcers ... labor is half
the cost of that in India, and educated
workers are plentiful. With over 150,000
tech workers and a population of 9 million,
Shenzhen has become the Silicon Valley of
China due to its entrepreneurial character,
world-class technology infrastructure and
talented labor pool," said San
Francisco-based Freeborders co-founder, John
Cestar.
The East Bay job forecast for 2005 is one
percent growth, according to the UCLA
Anderson Forecast, "But next year will
likely be a poor year as the now sizzling
housing market - which is fueling a
home-building boom that is creating jobs in
the East Bay - starts to cool off," Tri
Valley Herald (5/15/05).
Offshoring myths? Business Facilities
(March 2005), "There are some indications
that offshore outsourcing, the practice of
moving jobs to other countries, is not
creating the havoc that many believe. The
Government Accountability Office recently
said that of the 1.5 million U.S. jobs lost
last year in mass layoffs, fewer than one
percent could be attributed to offshoring."
For those of you who experienced a
modern-day life with kids, sports and a
seemingly endless list of activities, life
at times can be a blur, with racing from a
Little League game to one of your children's
playmate's birthday parties then back home
to change and head off with the wife to
theater or a benefit. Just as traveling too
quickly through Yosemite or other scenic
wonders might also be a blur, when one slows
down the frame-speed to appreciate each
experience, life can be pretty amazing.
Being there when your son hits a solid
triple and rounds the bases or catches an
incredible fly-ball, or when your
almost-3-year old daughter is able to change
her clothes by herself for the first time,
or out of nowhere begins singing an entire
song from memory - you know these are
special moments. Just as one chooses whether
to drink a fine wine sip by sip, savoring
the flavors and sensations, or just "down"
it by the glass, the choice is usually up to
us. Jordan just turned 8 last week, and for
his birthday, my wife and I took him and
almost-3-year old sister to Disneyland. The
past two months have been full of Little
League games where Jordan and his Single A
Yankees are having the time of their life,
and family outings to the Oakland Zoo,
Children's Fairyland, Marine World and
spending time at home with their new pets;
two small rabbits and a hamster named
Snowflake. For pictures of their recent
adventures, please click
HERE.
Spring days disappear all too quickly, but
slowing the "blur" into appreciated
experiences has been an enrichment to our
entire family.
We hope you also have a memorable spring
and summer, as always call me if we can
assist in any way with your commercial real
estate needs. We will be back to you on
August 1!