THE SHAPE OF THINGS TO COME IN WALNUT CREEK

Breakfast Presentation December 6, 2007

At the Walnut Creek Marriott Hotel

Hosted by the East Bay Business Times

Panelists:  Mayor Sue Rainey, Jeffrey S. Weil, SVP Colliers,

and Sanjiv Bhandari, Principal with BKBC Architects

 

Here are Jeffrey S. Weil’s responses and thoughts to the various issues

that were raised at this presentation

 

 

 

Why did Walnut Creek get it right from the beginning when so many other cities in the region did not? 

 

Because of its location, some great architectural buildings, walkability and being surrounded by tens of thousands of wealthy homeowners in Lafayette, Alamo, Danville, and Walnut Creek itself.  Also a long-time smart City planning department, foresight for Downtown City parking structures,  and while some might argue the city planning department is overly restrictive others believe they are too lenient in approval of design and use. The City of Walnut Creek also has a tremendous tax base for infrastructure to work with.

 

Plans for Walnut Creek’s downtown call for more than 800 condos and apartments in the next few years, including some priced at more than $1 million apiece. Why the residential building boom downtown? 

 

The residential boom, up until a year ago, was just about anyplace in the Bay Area developers could get entitlements – There are long lead times from start to finish, so what we are seeing being completed now in Walnut Creek started years ago.  But, right off the freeway, there is Bart, incredible retail amenities, and it is a super place to live.

 

The first of these new condo projects is The Mercer. Is The Mercer project emblematic of what this wave of multi-family housing in downtown Walnut Creek will look like? 

 

I have been asking people, if they like it, yes or no and I have received answers all across the board.  Some do, some don’t. 

 

The Mercer includes 21,000 square feet of ground floor retail space. You’re not a retail guy, but what does you agency’s retail people say about the way it’s performing? Is the space sold out? Who are some of the tenants? What price is it leasing at vis-à-vis other downtown retail space? 

 

Counter Burger we heard was close to signing for 1600 sf, Starbucks is rumored to be one of the new tenants, and there are a number of rumors about a 6,700 sf  Roys –Mercer has been very particular about its tenancy mix, limiting restaurants, Toll House is another possible tenant.  The retail rental prices, I have heard and please have your retail broker confirm these, are $3.50 - $4.00/sf nnn, $.75/sf triple nets, Walnut Creek Downtown $3.35 - $5.00/sf nnn, Broadway Plaza $8.00/sf plus $2.16, for example Stoneridge $5.00 - $6.50/sf  plus $2.50/sf, Downtown Pleasanton $3.00, Danville $3.75 - $4.00, Concord $2.25, Downtown Oakland $2.15.

 

What kind of impact will all this new multi-family downtown housing have on the retail sector? 

 

It can’t help but improve business at restaurants, movie theaters, Longs, Trader Joes, Whole Foods and Safeway – mom and pops not catering to these more upscale residents might be worried that chi chi success will raise rents that only other chi chi businesses will be able to afford – I shop at Bonanza Books and Performance Bikes so it’s up to the consumers to vote with their shopping dollars as to which stores they want.

 

Downtown parking has been a longtime complaint in Walnut Creek. What’s the city doing to ameliorate that problem? 

 

How actual a problem is there?  Do shoppers expect to park on the street right in front of their destination?  Are they willing to walk 2 – 3 blocks to a parking garage or is this unrealistic?  What do those folks do in San Francisco or Oakland?  Perception versus reality.  Do shoppers know their parking options?  Concern – Bart parking long-term.

 

Kaiser Permanente did major Walnut Creek expansion five years ago and John Muir is building 800,000 square feet of new hospital space in the city over the next 20 years. What role is health care playing in Walnut Creek’s economy and its quality of life? 

 

An increasingly bigger factor, over the next 10 – 20 years Walnut Creek Shadelands usage is shifting – US baby boomers aren’t getting any younger, there are an awful lot of us, and aging increases the need for health services – I wish it wasn’t so!

 

Walnut Creek has been a magnet for professional service providers, such as law, accounting and financial service firms. Why did Walnut Creek become the professional service center rather than other East Bay cities such as Pleasanton or San Ramon? 

 

Walnut Creek is the transportation hub for Eastbay, intersection of 680, 24 and Ygnacio ‘freeway’, easy access to employees in East County, North 680, top management   Orinda, Lafayette, Danville amenities.  I’m at 1850 Mt. Diablo, a 10 minute walk to Bart, same distance as B of A in San Francisco from Bart, and someone in my building can easily walk to 40-50 restaurants. 

 

What’s your ideal vision of The Shadelands in 20 years? 

 

It will be a health Medical Wellness Center for entire Eastbay.  Majority medical – related use, major building upgrade, perhaps like other regions are currently doing with the demolition of 1 - 2 story, 20 – 30 year old concrete tilt-up and woody buildings to be replaced by new Class A, seismic and life safety state of the art, hopefully with environmentally minimal or neutral impact.  i.e. solar panel, wind turbine energy neutral.

 

What are the prospects for a biotechnology cluster at The Shadelands? 

 

Slim to none – It is not located next to UC Berkeley, Emeryville or the South Bay.  I marketed Dow’s 156,000 sf lab for 2 years before being involved with putting Genome there.  No one else was interested.

 

How are the demographics of Walnut Creek changing? 

 

Younger?  Downtown?  60% college degree. 47 yr median age.  70% of the people own and 30% of the people rent.  $100k is the median income.

 

What is the future of the Andronico’s building? 

 

Rumor – Cheesecake Factory

 

I understand some boutique hotels have shown interest in Walnut Creek but there have been no takers yet. What’s the holdup on getting a classy boutique hotel such as Kimpton to Walnut Creek

 

Density and height, do we want a hotel bad enough to allow 6 or more stories?  Also, is there a large enough site if the height limit is an issue?

 

Is 75,000 square feet of new commercial construction per year enough for Walnut Creek

 

No, it is not.

 

Because that annual allotment rolls over from year to year, Walnut Creek now has 330,000 square feet of new commercial construction available. 75,000 square feet is not a lot of new commercial construction, so why is it rolling over? 

 

For office, Class A office rents range is around $2.75 to $3.25 a square foot full-service.  In 2001 they hit $4.25 at the height of dotcom before crashing back to earth.  New Class A mid-rise office construction, including land and tenant improvements, would require $4.50 – $5.00/sf full-service.  We are a long ways away from new office construction being viable in this region.

 

With land costs rising, can we actually continue to hold buildings to 7 stories and still get project to pencil financially – or are we going to have to start moving toward taller office buildings and high-rise condos? 

 

Two opinions – some want dense and up, others want quaint and low-rises. Some developments require density to maximize profit.  Max density.  Max tax revenues.  However, do we want a mini-San Francisco for Walnut Creek?  Pedestrian tunnels between tall buildings?  Visual vibrancy.  Let Dublin have their high-rises. 

 

How big a deal is arts and culture to the overall success of Walnut Creek

 

Downtown impact is $34 - $40 million per year annual positive.

 

Have arts and culture in Walnut Creek reached their zenith are they still a growing and improving sector of the community

 

A 2,200 seat theatre is their dream.

 

Regarding arts and culture, you’re getting some challenges from cities like Livermore, which just opened its 500-seat Bankhead Theater, and has plans to open a 1,800 to 2,000-seat theater, which is bigger than Walnut Creek’s Lesher Center. What does that mean to Walnut Creek

 

Means nothing –– Lesher does over 1,000 performances a year in its four theatres.  This has a big positive impact on Downtown Walnut Creek’s retail – this and the arts events provides $34 - $40 million per year, along with Lesher providing $4 million direct to the general fund.  Regarding other cities also having performing arts centers, just like other towns having a movie theater doesn’t mean there aren’t enough patrons to go around – Walnut Creek’s dream is a 1,800 – 2,200 person theater – their biggest competitor now is the Paramount Theatre in Oakland, not Livermore or other I-680 Corridor cities.

 

There is concern about the city running short on Class A office space and perhaps losing some of its growing companies as a result. What do you have to say about that? 

 

Walnut Creek Downtown Class A 7.6%, Downtown 402,000 sf available (247,000 sf Class A)  Shadelands 12.6% vacant, with 244,000 sf available. On the big picture, would we want to compete with Pleasanton or San Ramon, do we want a 1.1 million sf CarrAmercia or 2 million sf SBC or 50,000 sf floorplates?

 

Give us a vision of what Walnut Creek 2.0 might or should look like? 

 

Boutique office, quaint retail, abundant parking, traffic flowing, and a wonderful sense of community.

 

Real estate developers complain often and loudly about municipalities that make the approval of construction projects a lengthy, frustrating and expensive process. How does Walnut Creek rank on that score? 

 

Fairly tough. At times extremely challenging.

 

What should Walnut Creek do to maintain its distinctiveness vis-à-vis other communities? 

 

Keep architectural at a high level, maintain a diverse retail mix, not too too tough on the approval process.  Santana Row is a great example of what works. One of Walnut Creek’s biggest problems is with those long-term owners that don’t want any change.  DanvilleHartz Avenue, Downtown Pleasanton, Berkeley, Shattuck and Theatres, and Jack London – all districts, but all different. 

 

What excites you most about Walnut Creek’s future? 

 

The long-term big picture economic business drivers, ecobusiness, software, telecom, biotech are all thriving in nearby office regions.  This helps protect the economic well-being of neighboring communities like Danville, Lafayette, as well as Walnut Creek, so it’s not just an island of prosperity.

 

What troubles you most about Walnut Creek’s future?  

 

Imagine if there were 5,000 more parking spaces at the Walnut Creek Bart Station?   Well, there won’t be. Concord Naval Base development impact, and in the future the next housing boom out in East County adding another 50,000 people.  Also, many long-time property owners are content with the status quo and are not wanting to be part of new redevelopment.

 

I just talked to a technology company that had to split its workforce into two separate downtown buildings. I was told that as the company continues to grow it will likely have to leave Walnut Creek because there is not a big enough piece of space to accommodate it. Is this a problem Walnut Creek is facing? 

 

In October 1999 I wrote an article published in the Contra Costa Times for the Walnut Creek Chamber, titled, “Will the last high-tech firm to leave Walnut Creek please shut off the lights?”  Commerce One had just announced it was leaving Walnut Creek to expand down in Pleasanton and if we tried to accommodate every company’s growth we’d be a sea of huge office buildings – we don’t have the vacant land or enough redevelopment, so ok, there they go. 

 

Jeff Weil, what are you doing at Shadelands right now; tell us what’s happening there.

 

Shadelands – In 1976, no one else wanted it.  Major employers, 10,000 – 12,000 Walnut Creek employees and the best office rents in the entire Eastbay.  $1.80 - $2.00 full-service, 4/1000 free parking – Last to benefit when the economy improves.  A fairly slow market. As an example, in the past nine months there have only been 15,000 square feet in total office deals…and there is still a 40,000 square foot block of quality office space that has remained vacant for the past seven years….

 

What is the goal for Shadelands?

 

Whose goal?  Some of the tenants prefer R&D and manufacturing.  Some – more retail, i.e. restaurants, dry cleaners right in the park.  It is 2 ½ miles Pleasant Hill Bart and there are 40 restaurants … Some medical groups wish the City would rezone everything to medical.

 

I was told by one corporate executive that the problem with Shadelands is that it’s off the beaten path, separate from downtown and it’s hard to access because you must use the heavily trafficked Ygnacio Valley Road.

 

It is 2 ½ miles to Pleasant Hill Bart, 3 miles to Downtown Walnut Creek and the rents are 40%  lower – a typical 10,000 square foot tenant would save almost $1 million in just five years of rent.  Regarding the traffic on Ygnacio Valley, it will get worse.  1 ½ to 2 hour commute shed over time may go to 2 ½ to 3 hours, so when you add up both commute blocks that is almost an entire day of gridlock.

 

When you look at Shadelands, what do you see as the possibilities there from an architectural and land-use standpoint?  Is it all it could be, or are some changes needed?

 

Older one-story concrete tiltup buildings like Westaff headquarters, lots of two-story woodies, only two, three story Class A buildings. It is basically a generic, clean, garden office park.

 

How do retail rents in downtown Walnut Creek compare to retail districts in other East Bay cities?

 

Downtown Walnut Creek is $3.24 - $5.00 nnn, Broadway Plaza is $8.00 plus $2.00 equaling $10.00/sf, Danville is $3.75 - $4.00, Pleasanton is $3.00, Stoneridge is $7.50 - $9.00 – Probably way back there used to be a Walnut Creek Hay and Feed but then folks stopped going by with their pickups to load up on hay and out of business they went…now they have to drive to Alamo Hay.  As much as I miss Simon’s Hardware and the old Union 76 Station, I much prefer the new movie theatres.

 

Walnut Creek is already a retail haven, but what is its retail plan going forward?

 

It is a slow but continual redevelopment improvement.

 

Walnut Creek is moving in the direction of high density development, why is this happening?

 

Because of the cost of land and the scarcity of land.  Realization of value and importance of mixed use to a cities vitality.  If gas was $8.00 a gallon, how would this change the future commute patterns?  Bart is precious.

 

Where does Walnut Creek fit into the East Bay mosaic?  In other words, what role or position does Walnut Creek occupy vis-à-vis other East Bay cities?

 

It is probably at or near the top in many aspects – business address, accessibility and destination retail shopping.

Jeff Weil, when you’re out there finding space for a company, what are the advantages and disadvantages you find in trying to bring people to Walnut Creek?

 

The disadvantages – Downtown there are few big blocks of space, the rents are among the highest in the East Bay.  Also paid parking adds $0.25/sf a month plus 3/1000 versus Pleasanton’s 4/1000.  The positive – Downtown you can walk to 40 -50 restaurants, you can do holiday shopping without having to drive, there is Bart, the super freeway, quality buildings, pro-business environment and the best Chamber of Commerce in the Bay Area.  Jay Hoyer of the Walnut Creek Chamber of Commerce– Shadelands – there are bargain rents and a labor pool.

 

Ygnacio Valley Road is a major thoroughfare clogged by traffic.  What will be done about that situation?

 

It is only going to get worse.  There are 76,400 vehicles per day.  What about Concord Naval Base conversion and the 40,000 residents and 35,000 office workers that went to live in East County?

 

What are the parking issues in Walnut Creek – especially downtown – and what is the city doing about it?

 

Perception versus Realty – People want to park immediately in front of the store and not have to walk two blocks from a public garage.

 

Cities talk about turning their downtowns into “destinations.” Is Walnut Creek’s downtown a destination and, if so, what makes it a destination downtown?

 

Yes it is.  There is a tenant mix, a restaurant mix, Lesher Theatre, movies and Events.

 

Will all the efforts being made by the other municipalities to create destination downtowns; is Walnut Creek in danger of losing a good deal of its retail business?

 

No – Pittsburg is putting 40 million dollars into its new Downtown and I don’t see this affecting the shopping habits for Walnut Creek.  Pleasant Hill did an admirable job with its new Downtown, Concord is coming along but Walnut Creek is and will remain the retail star for the corridor.  Big factor.  Imagine a giant round target with the rings near the center representing cities filled with people earning a lot of money, bags of money, and Walnut Creek is the bull’s eye in the center.

 

Jeff Weil, how much business do you do in Walnut Creek as compared to East Bay cities?

 

I do 20% of my business in Walnut Creek.  In the Tri-Valley and Concord there are big blocks of available Class A, and flex space just waiting for tenants.  In Emeryville – Biotech and Ecoclean.  Downtown Oakland – government, legal and greater East Bay type businesses.

 

Is Walnut Creek an easy or tough sell?  Why is that?

 

It depends on what the client wants – image, accessibility to San Francisco, walk to great retail, easy commute to Danville or Alamo and smaller space needs versus needs of 150,000 sf, employees all live in Solano or East County or need a portion of a high-ceiling R&D – Walnut Creek would not be the right fit.  But if you are a personal services firm, i.e. law, CPA, financial investment, banking, and you want easy access to a huge customer base of fairly high net-worth families then Walnut Creek would be a great choice as it is surrounded by this type of customer.

 

 

Jeffery S. Weil, SIOR, is a Senior Vice President with Colliers International.  Jeff received his BS and MBA both from UC Berkeley.  Mr. Weil exclusively represents office tenants, and sells owner-user regional and headquarters buildings.  Focusing on Contra Costa and Alameda Counties Jeff has leased and sold millions of square feet of space.  His OfficeTimes Corporate Real Estate newsletter is in its 27th year of publication.  The East Bay Business Times Broker of the Year Award for last year was one of over one hundred industry and professional awards

Mr. Weil has earned throughout the years.

 

 

Jeffrey S. Weil, MCR.h, CCIM, SIOR

Senior Vice President

Colliers International

1850 Mt. Diablo Blvd., Suite 200

Walnut Creek, CA 94596

Ph. 925.279.5590  Fax 925.279.0450

jweil@colliersparrish.com

www.officetimes.com

 

 

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These comments are the opinions of Jeffrey S. Weil and do not necessarily reflect those of his company, his clients or his friends...